Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ii / Paper 3 / 5J / Solution

A one-parameter exponential family with natural statistic $Y$ has density or probability mass functionwhere $\theta$ is the natural parameter of an exponential family and $K$ is the cumulant function of an exponential family. Its mean parameter is

The exponential-family deviance from ${\theta }_1$ to ${\theta }_2$ is twice the Kullback-Leibler divergence:The carrier $h(Y)$ cancels from the likelihood ratio, so, with ${\mu }_1={\mathbb{E}}_{{\theta }_1}Y$,

For the Poisson distribution with mean $\mu$,ThereforeWriting ${\mu }_2={\mu }_1+\delta$ and applying the Taylor series of $\log (1+\delta /{\mu }_1)$ givesso the second-order approximation is

Solved by gpt-5.6-sol high.