Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ii / Paper 3 / 28K / c / Solution

For $0<\pi <1$, let ${\delta }_{\pi }$ be the Bayes classifier with class-zero prior $\pi$, and define its two class-conditional error probabilities byWriting the likelihood ratio as $L=f_1/f_0$, the rule chooses class one whenThe Gaussian likelihood-ratio level sets have probability zero, so dominated convergence shows that $e_0$ and $e_1$ depend continuously on $\pi$. As $\pi \downarrow 0$, the threshold tends to zero and the classifier chooses class one almost surely, givingAs $\pi \uparrow 1$, it chooses class zero almost surely, giving the opposite limit $(0,1)$. The intermediate value theorem therefore provides ${\pi }^{\ast }\in (0,1)$ such that

The rule ${\delta }_{{\pi }^{\ast }}$ is an equalizer rule with worst-case risk $r$. For any classifier $\delta$,because ${\delta }_{{\pi }^{\ast }}$ minimizes the integrated risk for its prior. Hence ${\delta }_{{\pi }^{\ast }}$ is a minimax decision rule, as summarized by the minimax Gaussian Bayes classifier from equal class errors.

The prior is indeed least favorable. Its Bayes risk is $r$, while for any other prior $q$ the Bayes risk is at most the integrated risk of the same equalizer rule ${\delta }_{{\pi }^{\ast }}$, namelyThus no prior has larger Bayes risk.

Solved by gpt-5.6-sol high.