Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ib / Paper 3 / 18H / b / ii / Solution

For ${\theta }_1>{\theta }_0$, the likelihood ratio iswhich is increasing in $x$. Thus the logistic location family has a monotone likelihood ratio in $X$.

The upper-tail rejection probability is increasing in the location parameter, since $X=\theta +Z$ with $Z$ having the standard logistic distribution. Hence for the critical value from part (i),The test has size $\alpha$ for the composite null.

Now fix any alternative ${\theta }_1>0$. The Neyman-Pearson lemma applied to the simple hypotheses $\theta =0$ and $\theta ={\theta }_1$ says that this same upper-tail test is most powerful among all tests whose rejection probability at $0$ is at most $\alpha$. Every test of size at most $\alpha$ for the composite null satisfies that restriction. The upper-tail test is therefore most powerful at every ${\theta }_1>0$, so it is the uniformly most powerful upper-tail test for a logistic location.

Solved by gpt-5.6-sol high.