Uniform area density in the unit disk is . The polar coordinates Jacobian gives the joint densityThus the coordinates are independent and the uniform random point in a disk has
For independent points , the area of triangle isNowIndependence therefore givesConditioned on , the probability that lies inside is its area divided by the disk area . Hence
Four points in general position fail to form a convex quadrilateral exactly when one lies inside the triangle formed by the other three. Each of lies inside the triangle formed by and the other two with probability , and these three events are disjoint. The remaining possibility is that lies inside . By origin in a triangle of three radial random points, this has probability . Therefore
Solved by gpt-5.6-sol high.
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