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Normal-normal conjugacy with known observation variance
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Mathematics
Area of mathematics
Probability and statistics
Bayesian normal model
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For independent
X
i
∼
N
(
θ
,
σ
2
)
and prior
θ
∼
N
(
μ
,
ν
2
)
, the posterior has variance and mean
v
n
=
(
σ
2
n
+
ν
2
1
)
−
1
,
m
n
=
v
n
(
σ
2
n
X
+
ν
2
μ
)
.
(214)
As
n
→
∞
,
m
n
−
X
=
O
p
(
n
−
1
)
and
v
n
1/2
∼
σ
/
n
, so fixed-level posterior credible intervals agree asymptotically with the corresponding known-variance confidence intervals.
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Bayesian normal model
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